Young People Can’t Buy Homes Until Older Owners Move: Conor Sen

Homeowners over the age of 55 currently own almost 42 million homes or 53 percent of the owner-occupied housing stock.

Bloomberg Opinion)—For a generation of prospective homebuyers in the U.S., there are two chronic problems with the housing market: an overall lack of supply, and low affordability in many markets. As policymakers think about this, they usually focus on how to create more supply by building. While that idea should be pursued to its fullest, the reality is that development takes time, and many areas resist it — so much so that the more likely significant relief for the housing crisis will come as baby boomers’ houses go on the market.

To put the supply situation for young would-be buyers in perspective, it helps to look at the change in the age composition of homeowners since the peak of the last cycle. With newly-released 2018 data now available, we can see that since 2006, the number of homeowning households in the U.S. has increased by 2.8 million, with 2 million of that increase occurring in 2018 alone. Broken down by age, older homeowners — those 55 and over — have increased by 9.6 million, while younger homeowners — those under 45 — have decreased by 4.3 million.

This age divergence in homeownership is a function of both the aging of the population and the demographics of who was affected by the housing bust. The people most negatively impacted by the housing bust were people who bought near the peak in home prices and/or who took out nontraditional mortgages that had interest-rate resets which led to a surge in their monthly mortgage payment. Those buyers tended to be younger, and after losing or walking away from their homes had damaged credit scores and weren’t able to purchase a home again for several years after the financial crisis. And then the generation coming up behind that “last in the door” cohort of buyers was plagued by high unemployment post-crisis and no longer had access to nontraditional financing, leading to fewer young homeowners in the years following the crisis.

Older homeowners, on the other hand, mostly kept their homes. In 2006 there were 5 million homeowners between the ages of 65 and 69. In 2016 there were 7.6 million, an increase of over 50 percent. This doesn’t mean there was a surge in post-crisis homebuying on the part of older Americans. It’s just that the large cohort of age 55 to 59 homeowners in 2006 got a decade older, swelling the ranks of older homeowners.

When thinking about the dearth of available housing supply confronting younger people, it’s helpful to put the stock of homes owned by older Americans into perspective. At the peak of the housing boom, the U.S. built around 1.8 million single-family homes in a year. Recently, with land and construction labor more constrained and more expensive, we’ve been building more like 800,000 a year. At a pace similar to the past several years, we could expect to build maybe 10 to 12 million single-family homes over the next decade in a somewhat optimistic scenario.

By comparison, homeowners over the age of 55 currently own almost 42 million homes, making up 53 percent of all owner-occupied houses in America. And those homes are all going to hit the market eventually, as owners downsize or die. This won’t be apparent for a while, but then there will be a 15- to 20-year period when it’s a major factor in the U.S. housing market.

Downsizing for older homeowners, to the extent it happens at all, doesn’t begin until age 75 or so. The oldest baby boomers are just now hitting that age. We probably won’t see significant amounts of housing inventory from baby boomer downsizing until the latter part of the 2020s, which is sure to frustrate buyers looking to enter the market before then.

The news is better or worse depending upon where you live. Populations are older in rural communities and in the Northeast and Midwest, which should mean more supply for prospective buyers in those geographies as inventory from older owners finds its way onto the market. The situation is likely to be worse in faster-growing and younger metros in the South and West. A microcosm of this could be the sluggish housing market in Greenwich, Connecticut, while the housing market in San Francisco booms.

Finding ways to build more housing will help, but ultimately some housing imbalances will resolve only when older owners’ homes go on the market.

Conor Sen is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is a portfolio manager for New River Investments in Atlanta and has been a contributor to the Atlantic and Business Insider.

To contact the author of this story: Conor Sen at [email protected]

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Why you need to buy a house in Dover Shores NOW

For the state of Florida, it’s relatively fair for Orlando the center for trade, to acquire the most significant portion of its area. This city measures about one hundred fourteen (114) square miles and, with 92% of dry land, which explains why it gets a little challenging to find Homes for Sale in Dover Shores. With the gift of unarguably wide land area, most listings that you’ll find online are inland properties such as Laguna Hills Homes for Sale. Orlando was listed as part of the Top 3  most dense city when it comes to the number of Florida registered individuals. Given that figures, it is quite a feat that there’s still a decent number of houses available in the city. But don’t be too complacent, it has been identified that a huge batch of home seekers are searching for a place in Orlando and it won’t be long before the properties run out. So if you are looking for Homes for Sale in Dover Shores, now is the best time to start searching.

The City of Orlando can also be heard as the “The City Beautiful.” Well, It’s not hard to earn that title if you are already in the spotlight as the “Theme Park Capital of the World.” The tourism industry of the city did an outstanding job of promoting their local activities and city attractions which draw more than 72 million visitors in 2016.  McCoy Air Force Base, which is now popularly known as the Orlando International Airport (MCO) was a huge help being a major hub for regional, domestic and international flights. As of this reading, MCO is on the 29th spot for the World’s Busiest Airports.

The City of Orlando is one of the top fan favorites when it comes to World Class Tourist destinations. There you can find family-friendly attractions such as the never aging, ever famous Disney World (insert Mickey Mouse Logo Here) to wake up that sleeping kid inside of us. If you’re not a Disney princess type of fan, then the Universal Orlando Resort is what you need- its an extension for the famous Universal Studios which, also found in Florida. Deeper into the center of the city you can find Orlando Metropolitan area, home to the majority of the city’s theater population. And of course, who would forget the University of Central Florida- which was listed to be the largest university campus when it comes to the number of enrollees as of 2015.

But it takes more than just cute nicknames or impressive features to make you decide. The selling point which will most likely turn the table would be its livability. Orlando is a heavily industrialized city and is considered to be a hi-tech monster city. The town was given national recognition for its continuous innovation in the field of Aerospace and aviation, software design and digital media, agricultural development, and a whole lot more of achievements in its quest to continually improve the technology industry.

Online property listings for Homes for Sale in Dover Shores continues to increase in number every single day to match the high demand of properties that are ready for family occupancy. Seeking help online might be your first course of action, but be cautious, you might end up getting the same list of properties from different Real Estate Agents. Always contact trusted Real Estate companies who you won’t end up in circles. One of the most trusted property management company that you can approach would be Cotier Properties, LLC; they can provide you with the most updated list of Homes for Sale in Dover Shores that matches your needs.

Your Home, Our Homes, Bayshores Homes

We all need a place where we can call home, where we can feel safe and comfortable, away in this world. Within the home, we may also have a special place that is just for us. We all wanted a beautiful and peaceful place like Bayshores homes for sale, located at the corner of Dover Drive and Pacific coast Highway way until Balboa beach. The Bayshore community has one of the best harbor frontages in all Newport Brach.


In Orange City Newport Coast is an affluent community, it is also known as “Pacific Rivera” for its climate atmosphere. Newport Coast homes for sale features large estate with a guard gated community and exclusive ocean view especially in Bayshores you will find 249 homes in 24 hours gated community. Once you are inside in their town, you can see their playgrounds, volleyball court, yacht marina.

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Bayshore also has a private beach with fantastic harbor views, useful when you to walk alone on the beach. Bayshores homes for sale range in size 1850 sqft to almost 10, 000 sqft for the large estates with lots ranging from 4000 sq to over half of an acre. Some of the interior features can include patio yard, high vaulted ceilings, fireplace, granite counters, living room, and walk-in closets.


What the Place Offers
The Bayshores community also offers an incredible location next to the Aqua Hedionda Lagoon area with select home provides excellent views. The homeowners association in Bayshores community have monthly dues required, surprisingly low at $500 per month which include common area ground maintenance and guard gate.


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So basically, Bayshore is at the center of a range of first-class shopping well-known restaurants you can choose from, high-class bars for the party and for an enjoyable zone – which makes it perfect for any lifestyle. Bayshore is only a small and quiet community that has no drops of continuous pressure from overpopulation. You are not only dodging the propelling and full of commotion stress of city life, but you are at the same time building respectable relations with your neighbors.


So basically, Bayshore is at the center of a range of first-class shopping well-known restaurants you can choose from, high-class bars for the party and for an enjoyable zone – which makes it perfect for any lifestyle. Bayshore is only a small and quiet community that has no drops of continuous pressure from overpopulation. You are not only dodging the propelling and full of commotion stress of city life, but you are at the same time building respectable relations with your neighbors.